XIAM007 - Making Unique Observations in a Very Cluttered World: 06/03/11

Friday, 3 June 2011

Half of Last Month's New Jobs Came from a Single Employer — McDonald's -

According to the unemployment data released this morning, the economy added only 54,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate up to 9.1 percent. However, this report from MarketWatch suggests data is much worse than that:

McDonald’s ran a big hiring day on April 19 — after the Labor Department’s April survey for the payrolls report was conducted — in which 62,000 jobs were added. That’s not a net number, of course, and seasonal adjustment will reduce the Hamburglar impact on payrolls. (In simpler terms — restaurants always staff up for the summer; the Labor Department makes allowance for this effect.) Morgan Stanley estimates McDonald’s hiring will boost the overall number by 25,000 to 30,000. The Labor Department won’t detail an exact McDonald’s figure — they won’t identify any company they survey — but there will be data in the report to give a rough estimate.

If Morgan Stanley is correct, about half of last month's job growth came from the venerable fast-food chain. That is hardly the sign of a healthy economy.

Rabid Beavers on Rampage in Philly - three people were bitten near a city creek in the past two days -

Wildlife officials are warning Northeast Philadelphia park visitors about possibly rabid beavers after three people were bitten near a city creek in the past two days.

Pennsylvania Game Commission spokesman Jerry Feaser said Thursday that one beaver has been captured and killed. Its carcass will be tested for rabies.

Officials say a beaver bit a husband and wife who were fishing on Wednesday in Pennypack Creek in northeast Philadelphia.

A beaver bit a child in the same area on Thursday. Wildlife officials later captured and killed a beaver about 500 yards from where the child was attacked.

In late April, a rabid beaver was found in the White Clay Creek area of Chester County.

US Has To Create 250K Jobs A Month For 66 Months To Return To December 2007 Unemployment By End Of Obama's Second Term -

It was difficult rerunning this chart with a straight face, make that near impossible, but here are the results. Following the most recent NFP disappointment, the simple math indicates that for the US to return to its December 2007 unemployment, when factoring in the natural growth of the labor force of 90k people a month, the economy will need to add 250k jobs a month for the next 66 months or until the end of Obama's now very implausible second term. Then again, considering what the alternatives are, we can guarantee that the 2012-2016 period in terms of job creation will definitely not look like what is presented on the chart below.